Will Australia Join The Asian Arms Race?
The Age
Wednesday June 28, 2000
Measured as a proportion of gross domestic product, Australia spends less of its national wealth on defence than all but five of its Asian-Pacific neighbors.
During the 1990s, this meant Australia lost some of the technological superiority that gave it military clout far beyond that of most of its neighbors.
Our F/A-18 Hornets are no longer the state-of-the-art fighter aircraft in the region. Russian-built MiG 30s and SU-27s now in service in Asia have the capacity to detect our Hornets and fire missiles before RAAF pilots would be aware any threat existed.
The belief that Australia could always compensate for its smaller population by maintaining a more sophisticated military may not be sustainable - unless, according to the defence discussion paper released in Canberra yesterday, there is the necessary investment in weapons, manpower and technology.
The Howard Government is determined to persuade the public of the need to increase defence spending. Notwithstanding our performance in East Timor, the shifting military balance in this part of the world suggests Australia is losing its advantage.
Is this cause for panic? No. Although Australia finds itself caught up in an era of ``dynamic uncertainty", it remains among the most secure countries.
It has no land borders. It has a history of cooperative relations in the region and no territorial disputes. And it enjoys a close alliance with the world's only superpower.
The Defence Review 2000 paper points out that ``Australia would be a very hard country to invade. Today, no country except perhaps the United States has the forces to seize and hold significant portions of our continent against the natural barriers of our geography and the significant capabilities of the Australian Defence Forces."
But the paper throws in a crucial caveat. ``If we did nothing to upgrade our forces while our neighbors continued to increase theirs at the pace we saw in the 1990s, the picture would begin to change."
East Timor was a wake-up call. The deployment stretched the army's resources and it is likely Australia will have to act to preserve regional stability again.
The defence green (discussion) paper aims to stimulate a debate on our future defence needs that will culminate in a government white paper before the end of the year. It comes at a time when military spending in the region is gathering momentum.
Unless Australia apes New Zealand in settling for a token defence commitment, difficult choices lie ahead. None of the options will be cheap.
© 2000 The Age